She swallowed the viscous air. Something got stuck in her throat. It was pain. She forced it in .As the desperation to be freed from the tangles of life dissolved in her blood, the black color of eyes faded to resemble the color of road.
She looked every direction and saw the life scattered on the road; the greens of the tree and red soil and many others, waiting for her to pick one. She saw no colors.
She saw her past in quick flash, stopping at each moment and living it the way she did not live then anyways. It was happening to her .All moments came in one go and she was crushed under the load of memories.
In a moment she felt the sadness of her married life ,those umpteen times she felt there was no reason to be sad ,the perpetual feeling to break free from choking bondage of black thread around her neck, hating her husband for depriving her of his company, trying to love him for the sake of some unknown reasons, wishing herself to be dead over the monotony of her married life, desiring him in lone bed with only her loneliness to hold on and trying to save each part of her body from his unruly desires…….
No feelings kicked in. There was a silence .or maybe she was numbed. Emotionally.
In other moment, she felt the excitement of meeting him: her college friend..yes in college he was called her boyfriend, the soothing breeze of revival of old memories ,the freshness of unfulfilled dreams, the urge to meet him again, the conversation anticipated before meeting him ,the echo of the conversation she had with him, the guilt that she was cheating him ,the kick that there was something happening n her life………
She was back .She looked up..The green branches stretching out of the trees. It reminds her of the green sari of her mother in law .was t green or greenish yellow? When she dragged her out of the house .. no she was not dragged .She chose it. She walked out of it. The inside little voice shouted at her and begged her to stop .But she has decided.
She sees red. It reminds of the blood on the rim of the chair, when her head hit it. When her husband discarded her …like always.
She saw blue. She could not. All colors blurred. There was just a lobe of black color of darkness, of night and despair. She could not see but could only hear his voice over the phone ...”I never meant we will run away. Sorry yaar....”And then she heard darkened silence.
She returns. And wonders how past and present has mingled now. She knew there was nowhere to go. She saw a sweeper smiling. Or laughing on her. She saw children mocking on her. Everyone knew what has happened to her. She wished she was dead. She knew she was dead.
The small voce was laughing. No it was actually crying silently. It had nothing to say.
She felt the world turned into a black tunnel where she was walking .She felt it was it was darkest and never ending tunnel. She fumbled for some reason to walk .And then she felt the hot ground tearing through her body. She felt she was dead. Her body was light .she felt easy and relaxed, oblivious of others opinion. She tried to life her body, her head. But it was heavy .and she saw herself changing into deformed lobe of shame and guilt. Shame that she left questions unanswered and..Guilt that she never gave herself any chance to chose.
She cried .But she could not raise herself.
She felt that even she was a person who could make a choice. Her tears filled the roads and poured into open manholes.
She was shouting but was silenced but the known sound of hissing throng. In a moment the darkness was gone .She was blinded by stray ray of sunlight fallen from the sun. she was surrounded by curious crowd ,peeping all over her. Someone helped her stand. And she felt she was alive in this world of questions, doubts, opinions, confusion and people.
She again started walking.
She was relieved she was alive. She heard a smile. The little voice inside her chuckled. It was no longer a small voice. It grew in size and soon it crossed the horizon. She breathes the air .the hope entered through her nostrils and dissolved in her blood.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Friday, August 21, 2009
$$$$$$$$$$
Dollar carry trade i.e. borrowing short term loans from US and investing in long term assets in markets with better yielding interest. The three conditions to ensure profitability are stable dollar, interest rate differential and appreciating target currency. One of the strong evidence is the global capital flow into countries like BRIC, Africa etc in form of FIIs. For example: Foreign institutional investors (FII) have increased their stakes in Indian companies by 100 basis points to 15.8% in the first quarter of 2009.According to Deutche Bank, this is the dollar carry coming in form of FII. So how did dollar carry trade get started? The reasons are obvious-the low interest in US (0.5%), inflation is -0.2% and the high interest rate prevailing in Emerging markets.
Implications: The carry trade provides liquidity in the target currency country, thus reducing the cost of capital. The dollar carry has provided the required capital flow in countries like Sudan, Congo, India. But it can have tsunami effect on the global capital market and economies, when the investors of carry trade start unwinding i.e. selling off the target currency.
What can lead to unwinding?
1. Rise in Interest rate in US: The rise in interest rate in US will affect the carry trade returns in two ways. It will decrease the interest rate differential premium and forward premium. The Forward premium is decreased as the rise in interest rate will appreciate Dollar. So what are the chances that interest rate will rise? Firstly, the most awaited revival of economy has been there around for some time, with soaring stock indices and improved GDP growth in 2nd quarter of FY09.This will have two positive effects on the Dollar. With so much liquidity in the system and America being the consumerist economy, the inflation fears cannot be ignored. Fed can raise the interest rate, once the economy recovers from inflation. Secondly it can also raise interest rate to appreciate the Dollar to control the huge current and capital account deficit. Thirdly, America is a consumerist economy, the personal consumption to GDP is 70 %.If we assume that Americans hold foreign currencies as investment, then the depreciating dollar will enhance the wealth of the American, in terms of dollar. (Portfolio Balance theory). This can enhance the real money demand and thus trigger more consumption. The increase in real money demand will lead to rise in interest rate, and thus appreciating dollar. (By IRP).
2. Depreciation of target currency: The short term selling off Dollar will depreciate dollar. Depreciating dollar can led to the decrease in export revenue of the emerging markets .Further, the debt will be widened in terms of Dollar. This will be led to the depreciation of the emerging market currencies with respect to Dollar. Thus this will lead to sell of dollars for covering their returns. Thus the major sell off will further crash the markets worldwide and give rise to major crisis.
Effects of unwinding on:
US: The unwinding can affect US through financial crisis, as many hedge funds and bank have invested in carry trade. The trigger of decreasing interest rate differential and appreciation of Dollar will lead to selling off target currencies. The high leverage ratio can drive these investment funds to bankruptcy.
Emerging Market: The target markets can be severely hit. The FIIs selling can lead to sharp fall in market. This will further depreciate their currency and worsen their Balance of Payment position and debt. Also the sell off in one country can spill over to other economies and crippling the financial market worldwide.
Implications: The carry trade provides liquidity in the target currency country, thus reducing the cost of capital. The dollar carry has provided the required capital flow in countries like Sudan, Congo, India. But it can have tsunami effect on the global capital market and economies, when the investors of carry trade start unwinding i.e. selling off the target currency.
What can lead to unwinding?
1. Rise in Interest rate in US: The rise in interest rate in US will affect the carry trade returns in two ways. It will decrease the interest rate differential premium and forward premium. The Forward premium is decreased as the rise in interest rate will appreciate Dollar. So what are the chances that interest rate will rise? Firstly, the most awaited revival of economy has been there around for some time, with soaring stock indices and improved GDP growth in 2nd quarter of FY09.This will have two positive effects on the Dollar. With so much liquidity in the system and America being the consumerist economy, the inflation fears cannot be ignored. Fed can raise the interest rate, once the economy recovers from inflation. Secondly it can also raise interest rate to appreciate the Dollar to control the huge current and capital account deficit. Thirdly, America is a consumerist economy, the personal consumption to GDP is 70 %.If we assume that Americans hold foreign currencies as investment, then the depreciating dollar will enhance the wealth of the American, in terms of dollar. (Portfolio Balance theory). This can enhance the real money demand and thus trigger more consumption. The increase in real money demand will lead to rise in interest rate, and thus appreciating dollar. (By IRP).
2. Depreciation of target currency: The short term selling off Dollar will depreciate dollar. Depreciating dollar can led to the decrease in export revenue of the emerging markets .Further, the debt will be widened in terms of Dollar. This will be led to the depreciation of the emerging market currencies with respect to Dollar. Thus this will lead to sell of dollars for covering their returns. Thus the major sell off will further crash the markets worldwide and give rise to major crisis.
Effects of unwinding on:
US: The unwinding can affect US through financial crisis, as many hedge funds and bank have invested in carry trade. The trigger of decreasing interest rate differential and appreciation of Dollar will lead to selling off target currencies. The high leverage ratio can drive these investment funds to bankruptcy.
Emerging Market: The target markets can be severely hit. The FIIs selling can lead to sharp fall in market. This will further depreciate their currency and worsen their Balance of Payment position and debt. Also the sell off in one country can spill over to other economies and crippling the financial market worldwide.
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