Saturday, February 23, 2013
Apne woh pal apni woh batein yad karta hai dil aur sochta main kaisa tha pahle
Apne hasi dhundhta hai apni hothon pe apne aasoon apni aankhon me
Kyun badal gaya hai aajkal kyun soch piccha karta hai hai unki jo apne nahi hai
kyun beparwah ho gaya khud se apno se apni yadon se hi
Apne ansh dhundhta hai khud me but khushi milti nahin kabhi mayusi me..
Koi Bandhan hai to par sheesha sheesha dikhta nahi hai
Main hun to wahi par badli badli
Koi pehchanta nahi hai
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Random
I heard it on its way.The beep.The pressing of pause button of my life.Its the same time of the era,where I am so oblivious of the next path.When I unburden myself from past and future.When I just live one moment at a time.When I accept that life is new everyday and although each frame resembles the previous,there are subtle changes caused to them.
I have made a promise.That this phase of "pause" will be full of activities.It will be full of small goals where I will present myself to win or lose everyday.
And the day has already started...
I have made a promise.That this phase of "pause" will be full of activities.It will be full of small goals where I will present myself to win or lose everyday.
And the day has already started...
Friday, November 27, 2009
Visit to past..
You are as close as a dream enclosed in my eyes
And as far as that dream from reality.
As true as the fact I m alive
And as false as the fact that I can live Without You….
You are a habit, deep rooted in my existence and every spoon of my feeling will have a taste of you. There was a day I chose to think and dream about you. There was night I chose to listen and feel you. Now even when I like to believe that I can move on, I know that I don’t have a choice.
Is it you I wanted or a reflection of the person I wanted in You. What made me never accept or reject you completely? What drives me to hope that you will come back again .What makes me feel things will be normal, when your coming back is the most abnormal thing ever.
Do you know the answer? I guess No. You never knew, otherwise you would have never let me go. Do I know? I guess No. Because then I would have never come to you. It is a lobe of entangled threads where the ends are tied to each other. The complexity of the problem is its solution .And only one possible way out. Cut the thread apart.Just not meant to be together.
And as far as that dream from reality.
As true as the fact I m alive
And as false as the fact that I can live Without You….
You are a habit, deep rooted in my existence and every spoon of my feeling will have a taste of you. There was a day I chose to think and dream about you. There was night I chose to listen and feel you. Now even when I like to believe that I can move on, I know that I don’t have a choice.
Is it you I wanted or a reflection of the person I wanted in You. What made me never accept or reject you completely? What drives me to hope that you will come back again .What makes me feel things will be normal, when your coming back is the most abnormal thing ever.
Do you know the answer? I guess No. You never knew, otherwise you would have never let me go. Do I know? I guess No. Because then I would have never come to you. It is a lobe of entangled threads where the ends are tied to each other. The complexity of the problem is its solution .And only one possible way out. Cut the thread apart.Just not meant to be together.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Commoners' Point....
It’s a year to 26/11..
Its more than eight years to 9/11 ..and many such events..many days have passed .many events shook the mankind ..many life sacrifices on the altar of terrorism…many tears have evaporated to bring the tsunami of emotions all around the world.
And what am I doing..reading news to make my point in Group Discussion… showing people around me that I am well informed.. hiding away when news of terror strikes… calling my family and relatives to know they are safe..praying that I return home every time I move out…and Waiting for my turn…..
Yes I am part of the common man’s group..Because there s nothing uncommon about me..I survive the same fear and guilt every day to sleep peacefully at night only to wake up to the alarming din of consciousness.
My tears have the same composition of water and salt when I watch either a kargil soldier dying or the daily struggle of balwadhu.
Something kicks in.constantly..!But as if its silenced by the heavy burden of habitual worrying for that future.!
But although I know that its time to stand, speak and fight terrorism, my greater desire of serving a big company in a smaller role and living my small life with big desires will never take backseat.
Its more than eight years to 9/11 ..and many such events..many days have passed .many events shook the mankind ..many life sacrifices on the altar of terrorism…many tears have evaporated to bring the tsunami of emotions all around the world.
And what am I doing..reading news to make my point in Group Discussion… showing people around me that I am well informed.. hiding away when news of terror strikes… calling my family and relatives to know they are safe..praying that I return home every time I move out…and Waiting for my turn…..
Yes I am part of the common man’s group..Because there s nothing uncommon about me..I survive the same fear and guilt every day to sleep peacefully at night only to wake up to the alarming din of consciousness.
My tears have the same composition of water and salt when I watch either a kargil soldier dying or the daily struggle of balwadhu.
Something kicks in.constantly..!But as if its silenced by the heavy burden of habitual worrying for that future.!
But although I know that its time to stand, speak and fight terrorism, my greater desire of serving a big company in a smaller role and living my small life with big desires will never take backseat.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Story....
She swallowed the viscous air. Something got stuck in her throat. It was pain. She forced it in .As the desperation to be freed from the tangles of life dissolved in her blood, the black color of eyes faded to resemble the color of road.
She looked every direction and saw the life scattered on the road; the greens of the tree and red soil and many others, waiting for her to pick one. She saw no colors.
She saw her past in quick flash, stopping at each moment and living it the way she did not live then anyways. It was happening to her .All moments came in one go and she was crushed under the load of memories.
In a moment she felt the sadness of her married life ,those umpteen times she felt there was no reason to be sad ,the perpetual feeling to break free from choking bondage of black thread around her neck, hating her husband for depriving her of his company, trying to love him for the sake of some unknown reasons, wishing herself to be dead over the monotony of her married life, desiring him in lone bed with only her loneliness to hold on and trying to save each part of her body from his unruly desires…….
No feelings kicked in. There was a silence .or maybe she was numbed. Emotionally.
In other moment, she felt the excitement of meeting him: her college friend..yes in college he was called her boyfriend, the soothing breeze of revival of old memories ,the freshness of unfulfilled dreams, the urge to meet him again, the conversation anticipated before meeting him ,the echo of the conversation she had with him, the guilt that she was cheating him ,the kick that there was something happening n her life………
She was back .She looked up..The green branches stretching out of the trees. It reminds her of the green sari of her mother in law .was t green or greenish yellow? When she dragged her out of the house .. no she was not dragged .She chose it. She walked out of it. The inside little voice shouted at her and begged her to stop .But she has decided.
She sees red. It reminds of the blood on the rim of the chair, when her head hit it. When her husband discarded her …like always.
She saw blue. She could not. All colors blurred. There was just a lobe of black color of darkness, of night and despair. She could not see but could only hear his voice over the phone ...”I never meant we will run away. Sorry yaar....”And then she heard darkened silence.
She returns. And wonders how past and present has mingled now. She knew there was nowhere to go. She saw a sweeper smiling. Or laughing on her. She saw children mocking on her. Everyone knew what has happened to her. She wished she was dead. She knew she was dead.
The small voce was laughing. No it was actually crying silently. It had nothing to say.
She felt the world turned into a black tunnel where she was walking .She felt it was it was darkest and never ending tunnel. She fumbled for some reason to walk .And then she felt the hot ground tearing through her body. She felt she was dead. Her body was light .she felt easy and relaxed, oblivious of others opinion. She tried to life her body, her head. But it was heavy .and she saw herself changing into deformed lobe of shame and guilt. Shame that she left questions unanswered and..Guilt that she never gave herself any chance to chose.
She cried .But she could not raise herself.
She felt that even she was a person who could make a choice. Her tears filled the roads and poured into open manholes.
She was shouting but was silenced but the known sound of hissing throng. In a moment the darkness was gone .She was blinded by stray ray of sunlight fallen from the sun. she was surrounded by curious crowd ,peeping all over her. Someone helped her stand. And she felt she was alive in this world of questions, doubts, opinions, confusion and people.
She again started walking.
She was relieved she was alive. She heard a smile. The little voice inside her chuckled. It was no longer a small voice. It grew in size and soon it crossed the horizon. She breathes the air .the hope entered through her nostrils and dissolved in her blood.
She looked every direction and saw the life scattered on the road; the greens of the tree and red soil and many others, waiting for her to pick one. She saw no colors.
She saw her past in quick flash, stopping at each moment and living it the way she did not live then anyways. It was happening to her .All moments came in one go and she was crushed under the load of memories.
In a moment she felt the sadness of her married life ,those umpteen times she felt there was no reason to be sad ,the perpetual feeling to break free from choking bondage of black thread around her neck, hating her husband for depriving her of his company, trying to love him for the sake of some unknown reasons, wishing herself to be dead over the monotony of her married life, desiring him in lone bed with only her loneliness to hold on and trying to save each part of her body from his unruly desires…….
No feelings kicked in. There was a silence .or maybe she was numbed. Emotionally.
In other moment, she felt the excitement of meeting him: her college friend..yes in college he was called her boyfriend, the soothing breeze of revival of old memories ,the freshness of unfulfilled dreams, the urge to meet him again, the conversation anticipated before meeting him ,the echo of the conversation she had with him, the guilt that she was cheating him ,the kick that there was something happening n her life………
She was back .She looked up..The green branches stretching out of the trees. It reminds her of the green sari of her mother in law .was t green or greenish yellow? When she dragged her out of the house .. no she was not dragged .She chose it. She walked out of it. The inside little voice shouted at her and begged her to stop .But she has decided.
She sees red. It reminds of the blood on the rim of the chair, when her head hit it. When her husband discarded her …like always.
She saw blue. She could not. All colors blurred. There was just a lobe of black color of darkness, of night and despair. She could not see but could only hear his voice over the phone ...”I never meant we will run away. Sorry yaar....”And then she heard darkened silence.
She returns. And wonders how past and present has mingled now. She knew there was nowhere to go. She saw a sweeper smiling. Or laughing on her. She saw children mocking on her. Everyone knew what has happened to her. She wished she was dead. She knew she was dead.
The small voce was laughing. No it was actually crying silently. It had nothing to say.
She felt the world turned into a black tunnel where she was walking .She felt it was it was darkest and never ending tunnel. She fumbled for some reason to walk .And then she felt the hot ground tearing through her body. She felt she was dead. Her body was light .she felt easy and relaxed, oblivious of others opinion. She tried to life her body, her head. But it was heavy .and she saw herself changing into deformed lobe of shame and guilt. Shame that she left questions unanswered and..Guilt that she never gave herself any chance to chose.
She cried .But she could not raise herself.
She felt that even she was a person who could make a choice. Her tears filled the roads and poured into open manholes.
She was shouting but was silenced but the known sound of hissing throng. In a moment the darkness was gone .She was blinded by stray ray of sunlight fallen from the sun. she was surrounded by curious crowd ,peeping all over her. Someone helped her stand. And she felt she was alive in this world of questions, doubts, opinions, confusion and people.
She again started walking.
She was relieved she was alive. She heard a smile. The little voice inside her chuckled. It was no longer a small voice. It grew in size and soon it crossed the horizon. She breathes the air .the hope entered through her nostrils and dissolved in her blood.
Friday, August 21, 2009
$$$$$$$$$$
Dollar carry trade i.e. borrowing short term loans from US and investing in long term assets in markets with better yielding interest. The three conditions to ensure profitability are stable dollar, interest rate differential and appreciating target currency. One of the strong evidence is the global capital flow into countries like BRIC, Africa etc in form of FIIs. For example: Foreign institutional investors (FII) have increased their stakes in Indian companies by 100 basis points to 15.8% in the first quarter of 2009.According to Deutche Bank, this is the dollar carry coming in form of FII. So how did dollar carry trade get started? The reasons are obvious-the low interest in US (0.5%), inflation is -0.2% and the high interest rate prevailing in Emerging markets.
Implications: The carry trade provides liquidity in the target currency country, thus reducing the cost of capital. The dollar carry has provided the required capital flow in countries like Sudan, Congo, India. But it can have tsunami effect on the global capital market and economies, when the investors of carry trade start unwinding i.e. selling off the target currency.
What can lead to unwinding?
1. Rise in Interest rate in US: The rise in interest rate in US will affect the carry trade returns in two ways. It will decrease the interest rate differential premium and forward premium. The Forward premium is decreased as the rise in interest rate will appreciate Dollar. So what are the chances that interest rate will rise? Firstly, the most awaited revival of economy has been there around for some time, with soaring stock indices and improved GDP growth in 2nd quarter of FY09.This will have two positive effects on the Dollar. With so much liquidity in the system and America being the consumerist economy, the inflation fears cannot be ignored. Fed can raise the interest rate, once the economy recovers from inflation. Secondly it can also raise interest rate to appreciate the Dollar to control the huge current and capital account deficit. Thirdly, America is a consumerist economy, the personal consumption to GDP is 70 %.If we assume that Americans hold foreign currencies as investment, then the depreciating dollar will enhance the wealth of the American, in terms of dollar. (Portfolio Balance theory). This can enhance the real money demand and thus trigger more consumption. The increase in real money demand will lead to rise in interest rate, and thus appreciating dollar. (By IRP).
2. Depreciation of target currency: The short term selling off Dollar will depreciate dollar. Depreciating dollar can led to the decrease in export revenue of the emerging markets .Further, the debt will be widened in terms of Dollar. This will be led to the depreciation of the emerging market currencies with respect to Dollar. Thus this will lead to sell of dollars for covering their returns. Thus the major sell off will further crash the markets worldwide and give rise to major crisis.
Effects of unwinding on:
US: The unwinding can affect US through financial crisis, as many hedge funds and bank have invested in carry trade. The trigger of decreasing interest rate differential and appreciation of Dollar will lead to selling off target currencies. The high leverage ratio can drive these investment funds to bankruptcy.
Emerging Market: The target markets can be severely hit. The FIIs selling can lead to sharp fall in market. This will further depreciate their currency and worsen their Balance of Payment position and debt. Also the sell off in one country can spill over to other economies and crippling the financial market worldwide.
Implications: The carry trade provides liquidity in the target currency country, thus reducing the cost of capital. The dollar carry has provided the required capital flow in countries like Sudan, Congo, India. But it can have tsunami effect on the global capital market and economies, when the investors of carry trade start unwinding i.e. selling off the target currency.
What can lead to unwinding?
1. Rise in Interest rate in US: The rise in interest rate in US will affect the carry trade returns in two ways. It will decrease the interest rate differential premium and forward premium. The Forward premium is decreased as the rise in interest rate will appreciate Dollar. So what are the chances that interest rate will rise? Firstly, the most awaited revival of economy has been there around for some time, with soaring stock indices and improved GDP growth in 2nd quarter of FY09.This will have two positive effects on the Dollar. With so much liquidity in the system and America being the consumerist economy, the inflation fears cannot be ignored. Fed can raise the interest rate, once the economy recovers from inflation. Secondly it can also raise interest rate to appreciate the Dollar to control the huge current and capital account deficit. Thirdly, America is a consumerist economy, the personal consumption to GDP is 70 %.If we assume that Americans hold foreign currencies as investment, then the depreciating dollar will enhance the wealth of the American, in terms of dollar. (Portfolio Balance theory). This can enhance the real money demand and thus trigger more consumption. The increase in real money demand will lead to rise in interest rate, and thus appreciating dollar. (By IRP).
2. Depreciation of target currency: The short term selling off Dollar will depreciate dollar. Depreciating dollar can led to the decrease in export revenue of the emerging markets .Further, the debt will be widened in terms of Dollar. This will be led to the depreciation of the emerging market currencies with respect to Dollar. Thus this will lead to sell of dollars for covering their returns. Thus the major sell off will further crash the markets worldwide and give rise to major crisis.
Effects of unwinding on:
US: The unwinding can affect US through financial crisis, as many hedge funds and bank have invested in carry trade. The trigger of decreasing interest rate differential and appreciation of Dollar will lead to selling off target currencies. The high leverage ratio can drive these investment funds to bankruptcy.
Emerging Market: The target markets can be severely hit. The FIIs selling can lead to sharp fall in market. This will further depreciate their currency and worsen their Balance of Payment position and debt. Also the sell off in one country can spill over to other economies and crippling the financial market worldwide.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Recession of course..
“Arguing against globalization is like arguing against the laws of gravity.”This statement by Kofi Annan truly specifies international finance is not a matter of choice any more. The international events has deeper and broader impact on nation, corporate and individual ,as manifested from Great Depression to- not- so-long- ago financial crisis.
The news of US has creeped into each one’s life It struck me when my grandmother(never went to school) talks about recession .She is worried and prays to God to end this recession so that my sister's job, a job consultant, does not get too badly effected. .Last week my friend broke up with her boyfriend, as he lost his job in Lehman Brothers .
This shows how intertwined our lives with US. Globalization is here to stay and be here forever,so what is the solution? The problem which is so large scale cannot be solving by sporadic efforts. But a combined effort is required from every country. But every country has promoted “protectionism” in some or the other form.I think it is just the start of downward spiral as manifested in great Depression of 1929.So the solution lies in promoting trade and enhancing and improving it. May be this answers the prayers of my grandmother.Amen!!
The news of US has creeped into each one’s life It struck me when my grandmother(never went to school) talks about recession .She is worried and prays to God to end this recession so that my sister's job, a job consultant, does not get too badly effected. .Last week my friend broke up with her boyfriend, as he lost his job in Lehman Brothers .
This shows how intertwined our lives with US. Globalization is here to stay and be here forever,so what is the solution? The problem which is so large scale cannot be solving by sporadic efforts. But a combined effort is required from every country. But every country has promoted “protectionism” in some or the other form.I think it is just the start of downward spiral as manifested in great Depression of 1929.So the solution lies in promoting trade and enhancing and improving it. May be this answers the prayers of my grandmother.Amen!!
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